Global LNG Demand to Grow 76% by 2040: REPORT

Global LNG demand is growing - Shell LNG Outlook 2023

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is projected to grow from 397 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2022 up to 700 mtpa by 2040 with a significant supply-demand gap to emerge in the late 2020s, according to the latest industry report.

Shell’s LNG Outlook 2023 highlights the world’s ever-growing thirst for natural gas in its liquefied form and the dynamics of global energy markets that have been severely impacted by the war in Ukraine.

Canada is mentioned just once in the report, reflecting on the fact that its LNG sector remains in its infancy and is years behind other top exporters such as Qatar, Malaysia and the U.S. in the build-out of LNG export capacity.

Major Highlights

Global LNG demand projected to grow to 700 mtpa by 2040, up from 397 mtpa in 2022 - a 76 percent increase

> Global LNG demand is projected to grow 76% by 2040.

> Global LNG trade increased to 397 million tonnes in 2022, growth of 16 million tonnes year-over-year.

> EU countries and the United Kingdom imported 121 million tonnes of LNG in 2022, an increase of 60% year-over-year, which enabled them to withstand a drop in Russian pipeline gas imports.

> The U.S. is leading in global LNG supply growth with an additional 5.9 million tonnes of capacity in 2022, for a total of 80 mtpa.

> Norway saw the second-largest growth in LNG supply, with an additional 2.8 million tonnes of capacity. Malaysia and Qatar were close behind, with 2.4 million tonnes and 2.3 million tonnes of capacity growth in 2022, respectively.

> Russia also increased global LNG export capacity, with the western and eastern parts of the country seeing 2 million tonnes and 1.2 million tonnes of additional supplies.

> Australia (1), Qatar (2), the United States (3), Russia (4) and Malaysia (5) remain the top five global LNG exporters.

> Europe (1), Japan (2), China (3) and South Korea (4) remain the world’s top four LNG importers.

> About 80% of new LNG supply by 2030 will come from Qatar and the U.S.

> Global operating LNG vessels grew 41%, up to 355 total ships.

> LNG vessels on order globally grew 30%, up to 521 total ships on order.

> Europe saw considerable decreases in fertilizer, chemical, steel and cement production ranging from about 5% up to about 35%.

Energy Policy Shift of 2022

European LNG imports grew 60 percent in 2022 year-over-year, due to search for alternatives for Russian fuels

To ensure energy security, governments across the globe were quick to implement new policies throughout 2022. European policymakers prioritized LNG imports after labelling natural gas as “green,” resulting in the quick build-out of new import facilities.

Coal use rebounded in major Asian economies with lasting impacts on global emissions. India’s emissions rose 5.9%, while China’s grew 1.9%. The rest of the world saw its total emissions increase by 2.2%.

Other noteworthy highlights related to shifting energy policies:

> Germany simplified licensing requirements for LNG terminals, successfully building two import facilities within a matter of months.

> Italy fast-tracked permits for floating storage and regasification units.

> China saw prompt construction of new LNG import terminals.

> Japan established a strategic natural gas reserve.

> The European Union’s total LNG regasification capacity is expected to grow from about 5 million tonnes in 2022 up to more than 75 million tonnes by 2025.

> Germany fired up coal plants to reduce the energy supply-demand gap at a cost to near-term air quality and impact on CO2 footprint.

Will Canada Change Along with the World?

Qatar and United States to account for 80 percent of new global LNG supply by 2030

2022 was a tumultuous year for global energy markets, where policymakers across the globe quickly changed their stance on traditional forms of energy such as coal and natural gas.

With energy security now catapulted into the limelight by the war in Ukraine, governments have adapted to prevent the significant and unintended consequences of energy shortages. For natural gas producers like Qatar, Algeria, and the U.S., that has meant the rapid expansion of their LNG export capacity to help meet the world’s growing energy needs.

Will Canada follow suit?

Canada, the world’s sixth-largest natural gas exporter, has more than enough reserves to fulfill our domestic needs while exporting more gas to the world in the form of LNG.

Canadian LNG projects will be some of the least carbon-intensive facilities of their kind in the world, with the ability to displace coal-fired heat and power generation in Asia and drastically reduce global greenhouse gases in the process.

Canadian LNG projects will be a significant economic boon not only for Canadians, but also for Indigenous Peoples looking to these facilities to generate own-source revenues and uplift their communities out of abject poverty.

Canadian LNG projects will create thousands of jobs and generate billions of dollars in economic activity for our communities. Additionally, our governments will also receive billions of dollars in public revenues which can be used to pay for our schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructure that contributes to the high standard of living and quality of life most Canadians enjoy.

Countless other natural gas producing countries see the global LNG opportunity and are doing everything possible to snatch up as much market share as possible. All the while, Canada is sitting idly by on regulatory decisions for projects like Cedar LNG.

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