15 Examples of 'Peak Oil' Predictions from the Past, Present & Future

15 Examples of 'Peak Oil' Predictions from the Past, Present & Future

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15 examples of peak oil demand in past present and future-01

The concept of 'peak oil' has a long and elusive history. To date, no one has gotten it right.

According to prominent economist and oil analyst David Yergin, the first predictions of peak oil production date back to the 1880s, when some experts believed the exhaustion of Pennsylvania's oil fields would spell doom for the U.S. petroleum industry [19]. After the First World War, there was yet another onset of imminent predictions in the 1920s, with more to come right through the rest of the 1900s and well into the 2000s [19].

Fast forward to today, and the world is still far from peak oil. As drilling and recovery technologies advance, we’re now tapping into new petroleum reserves that were previously unreachable. At the same time, emerging market economies in Asia and elsewhere are gaining greater access to cheap, abundant, and reliable fossil fuel energy as living standards improve and industrialization occurs, offsetting reductions in usage in developed nations.

All the latest projections show global energy demand is growing – including for oil and natural gas – and will continue to do so for decades yet. The world is expected to consume more energy than ever before in the coming years, with oil remaining a significant part of the energy mix, particularly in the petrochemical, aviation, transport, and industrial sectors.

Below are several examples of past, present and future 'peak oil' predictions made by various academics and organizations throughout recent history, showing how elusive the concept has become – and most importantly, that none have come true.

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1908 to 1920 – U.S. Department of the Interior

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Scientists in the U.S. Department of the Interior claimed that domestic oil production could occur between 1908 and 1920.

With increasing vehemence, these scientists forecasted that U.S. oil production would see total exhaustion by the 1930s [1].

1970 or 2000 – M. King Hubbert

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In 1956, geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted that U.S. domestic oil production in the lower 48 states would peak around 1970.

More than a decade later, in 1969, Hubbert made a second prediction that 'peak oil' would be seen globally around 2000 [3].

1999 to 2008 - Scientific American

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In 1998, Scientific American stated, "Predicting when oil production will stop rising is relatively straightforward once one has a good estimate of how much oil there is left to produce."

The popular U.S. science magazine suggested that this would be within ten years of when that article was published [2].

2005 – Ken Deffeyes

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Ken Deffeyes, Princeton University professor and renowned oil analyst, thought 'peak oil' would arrive by Thanksgiving Day in 2005 [4].

Deffeyes spent a lifetime in the oil sector and undertaking academic study of petroleum. He was a colleague of M. King Hubbert, the first person on record to predict that oil production peaks were possible [3].

2025 to 2030 – Bernstein Energy

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Consultancy group Bernstein Energy predicted that the last pandemic would mean global oil demand would return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 (which it did) and reach a peak sometime between 2025 and 2030.

The company's analysts suggested that while oil has not yet peaked, it is likely not far off [5].

2030 – British Petroleum

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During the last global pandemic, BP provided three scenarios showing how global oil and natural gas demand was severely affected by current events. In one particular scenario, the British energy major said that global oil demand may had already peaked as of 2019 [5].

Today, the company just revised its latest peak oil prediction from 2025 to at least 2030 [6].

2030 to No Peak – International Energy Agency

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The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2022 showed three different scenarios: the first with oil peaking in 2035 in "STEPS”, the second with oil peaking in 2024 under "APS", and a third prediction that oil had already peaked in 2021 in "SDS" [13].

Today, the IEA’s latest STEPS scenario, released at the end of 2025, sees oil peaking in 2030, while a new current policy scenario, “CPS” – not used by the IEA for several years – sees oil demand growth hitting 113 million bpd by 2050 with no peak consumption in sight [14].

2030s – Shell

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Former Shell CEO Ben van Beurden commented that the pandemic may have already brought about a peak in oil consumption, saying: "Demand will take a long time to recover if it recovers at all," according to reporting by Reuters [7].

Today, Shell expects global oil demand to rise by 3 to 5 million bpd into the early 2030s, with a long and slow decline afterwards as petroleum remains an affordable and convenient fuel for a rapidly growing world [20].

2030s – Rystad Energy

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Rystad Energy is a leading European consultancy firm that, in 2020, during the pandemic, predicted global oil production peaking at 102 million bpd in 2028, down from a previous estimate of more than 106 million bpd in 2030 [5].

Today, the firm forecasts global liquids demand to peak in the early 2030s at around 107 million bpd, while remaining above 100 million bpd through the 2040s [8].

2030 to 2035 – McKinsey & Company

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In its 2021 flagship report, global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company expected peak oil would slow in the late 2020s, finally peaking in 2029 [10].

Today, the firm has adjusted its annual estimation for peak oil consumption to occur sometime between 2030 and 2035 in its “Continued Momentum” scenario [11].

Mid-2030s – Vitol

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Vitol, an energy and commodities trading company, has predicted 'peak' oil to arrive in 2030.

"We got it peaking in about 2030 and a gradual decline out to 2040 … And then [a] rapid decline thereafter as the EV fleet and energy transition takes over," Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said, according to reporting by CNBC [15].

The company’s latest outlook predicts oil demand could reach almost 110 million bpd over the next several years, and is likely to peak and remain around this level until it begins to decline from the mid-2030s onward [16].

2033 – Equinor

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Not long ago, Norway's oil and gas major predicted that peak oil demand would arrive between 2027 and 2028 due to the pandemic, two to three years earlier than it previously said [5].

Today, the company’s highest-demand scenario in its Energy Perspectives 2025 outlook sees peak demand arriving in 2033 before a very slow decline through 2050 [9].

2034 – Goldman Sachs

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Goldman Sachs, one of America’s largest financial institutions and a leader in investment banking, securities and management, also predicted amid the pandemic that oil demand would peak beyond 2030 due to developing market economies despite the rise in electric cars, renewables and plastics recycling [5].

Its latest foray into the future of oil growth, announced last year, sees demand peaking in 2034 at 110 million bpd [17].

2040 – TotalEnergies

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During the pandemic, the French oil major adjusted its peak oil prediction for around 2030 downward to before 2030 and suggested global demand would decrease to between 40 and 64 million bpd by 2050 [5].

Today, the company has significantly adjusted its peak oil estimate a decade ahead, for 2040 [12].

2045+ – OPEC

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has always been bullish with its oil forecasting. Its latest prediction sees total liquids demand worldwide hitting 123 million bpd by 2050 –  not too much higher than the IEA’s WEO 2025 CPS scenario.

“We hope that the IEA’s World Energy Outlook represents a return to the fold of analysis grounded in energy realities and that we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil,’” the organization said in a recent statement.

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Who’s right about peak oil demand, and who’s wrong? No one knows, but one thing is for sure: as the world’s energy systems undergo rapid growth and change, it is becoming increasingly clear that we will need to rely on all forms – hydro, wind, solar, but also oil, natural gas, and nuclear – to build a better future.

As long as the world needs oil, it should be produced in Canada, benefitting our families here at home with jobs, ensuring lasting prosperity for the country, and providing a reliable supply for our trade partners abroad.

The world needs more Canadian energy, so let's give it to them!

SOURCES:

1 - https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8149&context=nwc-review

2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ever-happened-to-peak-oil/?sh=39107625731a

3 - https://reason.com/2015/06/10/hubberts-peak-refuted-peak-oil-theory-wr/

4 - https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-02-23/good-oil/

5 - https://energynow.ca/2020/11/pandemic-brings-forward-predictions-for-peak-oil-demand/

6 - https://boereport.com/2025/09/25/bp-postpones-oil-demand-peak-prediction-to-2030-from-2025/

7 - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pandemic-brings-forward-predictions-peak-oil-demand-2021-04-21/

8 - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-America-to-Anchor-Non-OPEC-Oil-Supply-Through-2030.html

9 - https://www.equinor.com/sustainability/energy-perspectives

10 - https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients/energy-insights/global-oil-supply-demand-outlook-to-2035

11 - https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/energy-and-materials/our-insights/global-energy-perspective#/

12 - https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/110425-totalenergies-delays-peak-oil-demand-forecast-by-a-decade

13 - https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022

14 – https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025

15 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/energy-transition-is-lagging-oil-demand-will-stay-industry-players.html

16 - https://vitoloutlook.com/outlook-to-2040/

17 - https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/peak-oil-demand-is-still-a-decade-away

18 - https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061423-iea-raises-2023-demand-growth-forecast-by-200000-bd-sees-demand-peak-this-decade

19 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil

20 - https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/scenarios/the-2025-energy-security-scenarios.html