How Could Canada's Oil & Gas Emissions Cap Affect the Economy?
Canada's plans to roll out an oil and gas emissions cap could not come at a worse time. While millions of families struggle to make ends meet, Canadian leaders are sounding the alarm on the unnecessary policy, calling it a de facto production cap, which, if implemented in its current form, could:
- put tens of thousands of jobs at risk
- drive up costs for our families
- take a significant toll on the economy
But don't take our word for it.
Below we look at several reports highlighting the economic damage Canada's oil and gas emissions cap policy would cause, reiterating the need for further discussions on how Canadians should support – not castigate – the natural resources sector for a stronger and more prosperous future.
- 23 Quotes from Canadians on the Oil & Gas Emissions Cap
- $1 Trillion & 151,000 Jobs: Potential Economic Cost of Canada's Oil & Gas Cap
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Fraser Institute (September 2024)
Report Highlights:
Canada's oil and gas emissions cap could…
- Simply move energy production away from Canada to more permissive jurisdictions
- Result in significant economic losses across the country
- Harm Canada's petrochemical and plastics sectors
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Deloitte (March 2024)
Report Highlights:
Canada's oil and gas emissions cap could…
- Reduce Canadian oil production by 10%
- Reduce Canadian natural gas production by 12%
- Reduce Canadian jobs by 90,000 between 2030 and 2040
- Create a permanent economic downturn in Alberta equivalent to $191 billion of lost activity
- Create a permanent economic downturn in the rest of the country equivalent to $91 billion of lost activity
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Conference Board of Canada (January 2024)
Report Highlights:
Canada's oil and gas emissions cap could…
- Reduce employment by anywhere from 82,000 and 151,000 jobs nationwide by 2030
- Reduce Canada's GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040
- Reduce federal government revenue by up to $151 billion between 2030 and 2040
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Montreal Economic Institute (November 2022)
Report Highlights:
The oil and gas emissions cap could…
- Reduce the Canadian economy by anywhere between $44.8 billion and $79.3 billion
- Reduce production such that it could represent the equivalent of Canada's total current annual oil exports
- Reduce exports to our trading partners, who would have to compensate for the lack of supply by importing oil and gas from other potentially less reliable and democratic countries
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Canadians Need Jobs and Economic Stimulus
Canada's plan to implement an oil and gas emissions cap comes at a time when the economy is already facing significant challenges. It's unreal.
With real GDP per capita growth stagnating, productivity levels lagging behind, business investment lacking, and regulatory uncertainty impeding resource projects, the proposed policy could exacerbate these issues by:
- Risking tens, if not hundreds of thousands of jobs
- Raise costs for Canadian households
- Further put strain on an already beleaguered economy
The four reports above warn that Canada's oil and natural gas emissions/production cap will make things worse.
Furthermore, by curtailing investment in one of Canada's key industries, the cap risks undermining a sector that "pays the bills" for Canada's imported goods while threatening much-needed investment that drives innovation and economic growth.
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Instead, Canada should foster a dynamic and supportive environment for its natural resource sectors—energy, forestry, mining, and agriculture.
Accounting for 21% of the economy, 3 million jobs, and around 50% of its exports, it's time Canadians champion the natural resources sector for a stronger today and a more prosperous future.
Will you join us?
Global demand for natural gas and all energy sources is growing.
— LNG Action (@LNGAction) October 21, 2024
Let’s keep the jobs, community benefits, and funding for social programs here in Canada.
Makes perfect sense as Canadians. pic.twitter.com/YD4fMoAJK3