10 Claims About the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion that Proved False

-----------------

According to Anti-Canadian Pipeline Activists…

-----------------

Claim #1 – TMX is an unnecessary pipeline and is a project no private buyer will want. ^[1]

Reality: TMX has already proven its worth as a necessary transmission pipeline that has allowed Canada to reduce the price discount on its Western Canadian Select (WCS) blend with the Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark, reduce the price volatility between WCS and WTI, and is already up for sale with private Indigenous groups looking to buy the project. ^[8][9][10]

-----------------

Claim #2 - TMX does not make economic sense, is not economically viable. ^[1]

Reality: The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion was “worth every penny” of its price tag, according to analysis by a leading Canadian economist, who says that the project could earn up to $38 billion in revenues over the next 20 years (more than its cost). ^[11]

-----------------

Claim #3 - TMX commits Canada to a path that makes no sense in the post-pandemic world. ^[1]

Reality: Global oil demand dropped significantly during pandemic lockdowns that saw many people at home, not going to work, and avoiding travel entirely. However, oil consumption would eventually bounce back, is now at record highs, and, depending on which organization you talk to, will continue to grow for decades to come. ^[12][13]

-----------------

Claim #4 - TMX will not increase profitability for Canada’s oil producers. ^[2]

Reality: On the contrary, many domestic energy producers have gone on the record saying they believe TMX will help reduce oil price differentials, helping Canadians maximize the value of their resources – in this case, oil. ^[14]

-----------------

Claim #5 - TMX is a white elephant in a world that is even modestly moving away from fossil fuels. ^[3]

Reality: Referring to the TMX as a “white elephant,” --- or, in other words, a possession that is useless or troublesome, just doesn’t make sense. Evidence thus far has shown that demand for oil shipped on the TMX pipeline is alive and well, with buyers worldwide including East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia, and North America. ^[15][16]

A great example of TMX’s usefulness is how U.S. West Coast refiners have reduced imports of Saudi oil as they turn to the newly expanded pipeline for feedstock, helping to promote North American energy security. ^[17]

-----------------

Claim #6 – TMX, when sold, will not receive a price that covers the projected cost of the pipeline. ^[4]

Reality: Despite claims by activist groups, Canadian taxpayers can expect to potentially recover their full investment into the project. ^[10]

-----------------

Claim #7 - TMX will not help Canadians fetch a better price for their oil and deliver no additional economic benefit to Alberta or Canada. ^[5]

Reality: TMX has increased access to world markets for Canadian crude and helped narrow longstanding discounts on WCS heavy crude compared to the WTI benchmark by as much as $10 per barrel. ^[10]

Additionally, Canadians are already benefitting from TMX. According to the Bank of Canada’s April 2024 report, the Canadian economy will see a 0.25 percentage point increase in second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the new pipeline --- which is no small amount for a $3 trillion economy. ^[11][18]

-----------------

Claim #8 - TMX will not export oil to Asia because Asian oil markets aren’t interested in Canadian heavy oil. ^[5]

Reality: To date, buyers across Asia have purchased cargoes from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, including China, Japan, Brunei, India, and South Korea. ^[15][19]

-----------------

Claim #9 - TMX will not create any significant financial benefits for British Columbia. ^[6]

Reality: The Bank of Canada predicts that Canada’s total export growth will rise by 6.25% on average over the second-half of 2024, an increase being led by oil exports due to the TMX’s new capacity. Also, TD estimates that increased oil output this year will add between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points to Canada’s total GDP. ^[20]

Further estimates show TMX construction from 2018 to 2023 generated $52.8 billion in total economic activity in B.C., added $26.3 billion to GDP, paid $11 billion in wages, created 67,423 full-time equivalent jobs (FTEs), and contributed $2.9 billion in tax revenue. Also, the newly expanded pipeline will generate $17.3 billion in total economic activity over the next 20 years, add $9.2 billion to GDP, pay $3.7 billion in wages, create 36,066 FTEs, and contribute $2.8 billion in tax revenue. ^[22]

-----------------

Claim #10 - TMX will not help lower gas prices in British Columbia, but rather increase costs for gasoline. ^[7]

Reality: Canadians can expect relief at the gas pump due to the recently completed TMX pipeline, according to a report by C.D. Howe Institute. The think-tank’s analysis shows that insufficient pipeline capacity costs B.C. consumers an estimated $1.5 billion yearly in higher gasoline prices. With TMX now operational, wholesale gasoline prices in Vancouver dropped by about 28 cents per litre compared to earlier this year. ^[21]

-----------------

-----------------

The Same Old Playbook

Despite just how wrong anti-pipeline activists were about TMX, they continue to make false claims about up-and-coming job-creating, prosperity-generating natural resource projects.

Several non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are now teaming up on B.C. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, misinforming the public about the global energy realities we face today.

It is perplexing to see that any time a new energy project is proposed in Canada, these same opponents suddenly become experts in predicting the future of oil and gas demand (something they've repeatedly been wrong about), then say that these projects are unnecessary.

If there is anything to be learned about the debacle of false claims for TMX, it’s that we should take anything these activists say about B.C. LNG and other upcoming resource projects in Canada with a grain of salt.

Reinforcing Canada’s national economy and North America’s energy self-sufficiency.

Thanks to the men and women, both Indigenous and non-Indigenous, who built the #TransMountain pipeline expansion. pic.twitter.com/JwNL5oiA4X

— Canada Action (@CanadaAction) November 2, 2024

SOURCES:

_{1 - https://www.dogwoodbc.ca/news/world-changed-canada-still-in-pipeline-business/}

_{2 - https://policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-no-longer-needed-new-expert-report}

_{3 - https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/story/45002/trans-mountain-pipeline-only-profitable-in-worst-case-climate-scenario-parliamentary-budget-officer/}

_{4 - https://environmentaldefence.ca/2022/05/11/statement-from-julia-levin-national-climate-program-manager-on-the-new-subsidy-for-trans-mountain-pipeline/}

_{5 - https://environmentaldefence.ca/2018/10/31/deceptive-trans-mountain-pipeline-ads-leave-alberta-taxpayers-hook-10-million/}

_{6 - https://environmentaldefence.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Coalition-Backgrounder-Kinder-Morgan-Project.pdf}

_{7 - https://thenarwhal.ca/why-building-trans-mountain-pipeline-will-increase-gas-prices-b-c/}

_{8 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/trans-mountain-to-sell-30-to-indigenous-groups-premier-says}

_{9 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canadian-oil-price-enjoys-stability-trans-mountain-pipeline}

_{10 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/taxpayers-will-recover-billions-invested-tmx-pipeline}

_{11 - https://thehub.ca/2024/04/30/trevor-tombe-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-was-worth-every-penny/}

_{12 - https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/global-crude-oil-demand/}

_{13 - https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024}

_{14 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/trans-mountain-seen-boosting-canadian-oil-prices}

_{15 - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asian-Market-Buys-First-Oil-Cargoes-From-Canadas-Trans-Mountain-Pipeline.html}

_{16 - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/valero-chevron-buy-oil-trans-mountain-west-coast}

_{17 - https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/us-oil-imports-saudi-arabia-hit-near-four-year-low-refiners-turn-tmx-pipeline}

_{18 - https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/mpr-2024-04-10.pdf}

_{19 - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/japan-s-korea-refiners-join-china-buying-canadian-tmx-oil-2024-07-15/}

_{20 - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/trans-mountain-pipeline-cost-overruns-1.7357954}

_{21 - https://businessexaminer.ca/victoria-articles/item/trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-brings-relief-at-the-pump-for-bc-drivers/}

_{22 - https://www.bcbc.com/building-prosperity/transmountain}