Global Oil Demand Growth Projections: The World Needs More Canadian Oil

World oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, IEA says

November 2025

In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption.

It predicted that global energy demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035 - a 15% increase from present levels.

ADNOC: Oil demand to remain above 100 million barrels past 2040

November 2025

Global oil demand will continue to grow in the coming decades and remain above 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040 and beyond, says ADNOC.

Aviation, petrochemicals, and industries including AI and data centers will drive global oil and total energy demand higher in the next decades, according to the executive of the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of OPEC’s top producers.

TotalEnergies forecasts rising oil demand until 2040 as energy transition slows

November 2025

French oil major TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to rise until 2040 before declining gradually as energy security concerns and a lack of political coordination slow efforts to cut emissions, it said in its annual energy outlook report on Tuesday.

The report shows oil demand rising nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day in 2040 under current trends, driven mainly by India, with global consumption then dropping to 98 million bpd in 2050.

Fossil fuels to dominate global energy use past 2050, McKinsey says

October 2025

McKinsey expects fossil fuels to account for about 41-55% of global energy consumption in 2050, down from today’s 64% but higher than previous projections.

U.S. data-center-related power demand is expected to grow nearly 25% a year until 2030, while demand from data centers globally would average 17% growth per year between 2022 and 2030, especially in OECD countries.

Fossil fuels to account for 69% of global energy mix in 2050: Outlook

August 2025

Global oil demand is projected to grow to ~105 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2050, up from ~100 mbpd today, while demand for natural gas is projected to grow to ~500 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2050, an increase of 20% compared to current levels.

The Outlook’s projection for oil and gas demand is driven by the unique needs of industry and commercial transportation which, combined, make up 75% of global oil demand, >40% of natural gas demand (excluding off-site electricity), and ~50% of electricity demand in 2050.

OPEC says global oil consumption will hit 123 million bpd by 2050

July 2025

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd).

Vitol sees 2040 global oil demand little changed from current levels

February 2025

Global oil demand will likely be close to current levels in 2040, energy and commodities trader Vitol said in its long-term demand outlook on Monday, with rising consumption later this decade offset by a decline through the late 2030s.

The world's largest independent oil trader expects oil demand - which the International Energy Agency puts at an expected 104 million barrels per day this year - to rise to nearly 110 million bpd by the end of the 2020s.

Shell scenarios see bright future for oil and gas and LNG

February 2025

Shell’s latest energy outlook sees robust oil demand in two of its three scenarios, where global crude demand continues its current rise through shortly after 2030, when it plateaus for several years before starting a gradual decline.

By 2060, the most optimistic demand scenario called Surge sees global oil demand at more than 80 million bpd, while that drops to around 73 million bpd in the Archipelagos.

The World Needs More Canadian Oil & Gas

With growing global demand, Canada should be the world’s go-to oil supplier of choice. As a reliable, democratic nation grounded in the rule of law, we offer unmatched stability.

Choosing Canadian barrels strengthens our energy security here at home and that of our allies abroad. More Canadian-made oil on domestic and international markets helps displace supply from less dependable producers—keeping global markets steady, and our families more secure.

The benefits of supporting our job-creating, prosperity-generating energy sector are real and close to home.

The oil and gas industry accounts for 900,000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs across Canada, from rig workers in British Columbia to manufacturers and suppliers in Ontario. It is projected to create more than $1.1 trillion for the public purse between 2000 and 2032—funding the services and infrastructure we can count on, while supporting local businesses and national prosperity.

The bottom line: if the world is going to buy oil, it should be supplied by Canada. That choice rewards reliability, supports Canadian families and communities, strengthens our partners abroad, and advances our national economy.

Now is the time to back more Canadian oil reaching global markets through new trade infrastructure projects, and start leading with confidence towards a brighter, more prosperous economic future.