Global potash demand is expected to increase by approximately 70% by 2050 according to a new infographic by Visual Capitalist [1], presenting a significant opportunity for Canada to solidify its position as a leading and reliable supplier.
As the world's population is expected to grow to 9.8 billion by 2050, so will the demand for food, making potash a critical component in ensuring global food security. Canada, with its vast reserves and established production capabilities, is well-positioned to help meet rising potash demand and play an even more vital role in feeding the world.
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Global Potash Demand in 2050
What’s Causing Potash Demand to Rise?
According to Visual Capitalist, global potash demand is expected to reach 118 megatonnes (Mt) by 2050, up from 71.6 Mt in 2021. Several key factors are driving the projected increase in potash demand worldwide, including [1]:
Growing Global Population: With the world's population expected to grow by around two billion between now and 2050, the need for more food will inevitably lead to a greater demand for potash-based nitrogen fertilizers to increase crop yields. Today, almost all – or 95% - of potash production is used in fertilizer production.
Increasing Living Standards: As economies develop and living standards improve, especially in developing emerging market economies, there will likely be a dietary shift towards more calorie-dense and nutrient-rich foods, necessitating more intensive agricultural practices and a greater use of fertilizers.
Enhanced Agricultural Techniques: Innovative advances in farming, particularly in fertilizer application, are leading to a more efficient use of potash, helping to boost crop quality and yield.
Importance of Potash to Global Food Security
Potash is a naturally occurring mineral rich in potassium, one of the three essential nutrients—along with nitrogen and phosphorus—required for plant growth. It is a key ingredient in the production of fertilizers that enhance crop yields, strengthen plant root systems, and improve resistance to drought and disease. As global demand for food continues to rise, the role of potash in maximizing agricultural productivity becomes increasingly apparent.
According to Our World in Data, it is estimated that nitrogen fertilizers, which are made using potash, support approximately half of the global population. Without these fertilizers, the world’s population would be much smaller. The development of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, in particular, has been a significant contributor to the substantial increase in crop yields observed throughout the 20th century.
Canadian Potash Sector’s Critical Role
What role does Canada have to play? Examining the numbers, we gain insight into our country's significant role in global potash markets.
In 2023, Canada accounted for more than 32% of global potash production, over 41% of exports, and held the world’s largest reserves. In other words, Canada is the world’s top producer and exporter, and with an estimated 1.1 billion tonnes of potash still in the ground, we can do more to help feed a growing world.
Today, Saskatchewan produces roughly 30% of the world’s potash supply, which is incredible!
Canada's role as a major supplier of potash is poised to expand with projects such as the Jansen Mine, about 140 kilometres east of Saskatoon. The new $10.6 billion expansion will make it one of the world's largest potash mines, with a projected annual production of approximately 8.5 million tonnes, equivalent to roughly 10% of the current global supply [2].
With its vast reserves, established infrastructure, and commitment to reliable mining practices, Canada is poised to be a global leader in the potash market for decades to come. By providing a dependable supply of this essential commodity for decades to come, Canada’s role in ensuring global food security is only set to grow - and alongside it, the economic benefits for Canadian families and governments here at home.
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Canada may have barely scratched the surface when it comes to mining critical minerals, and a new report suggests developing those resources could potentially create thousands of new jobs and help our economic security. https://t.co/pojG7Cnbht
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SOURCES:
1 - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/bhp01-visualized-the-surge-in-global-potash-demand/
2 - https://www.mining.com/bhp-bets-on-10-6b-jansen-mine-to-build-potash-footprint/