Blanchet and Guilbeault Wrong on Canadian Pipelines & Global Oil Demand, Yet Again

Blanchet and Guilbeault Wrong on Canadian Pipelines & Global Oil Demand, Yet Again

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Blanchet and Guilbeault Wrong Again on Oil Demand and Canadian Pipelines again

Canada is at an economic turning point that will define our country for generations to come. Will we unite behind nation-building critical infrastructure projects to stimulate economic growth, diversify our export markets, and secure our prosperity? We have to decide if we’re going to build, or if we’re going to keep blocking.

With economic challenges arising from the Trump administration, it’s incredibly important that Canada’s elected officials take on a balanced and pragmatic approach to kick-starting the Canadian economy. Therefore, it’s a bit surprising to see recent comments from two of our leaders.

“There’s no future for oil and gas, at least in Quebec and probably everywhere,” said Yves-François Blanchet [1].

Mr. Blanchet’s assertion isn’t based on facts. First, recent polling shows a majority of Quebecers now support new east-west transmission pipelines, including the revival of two major projects, Energy East and GNL Quebec. Even Premier François Legault is now saying there’s a possibility of a pipeline in northern Quebec [8], something unthinkable until just a few months ago.

“For a while, even we are going to keep using oil in our cars. Of course, we need to save the planet, and we do want to make a transition eventually. But in the short term, we also need to acknowledge that we have access to resources that, for now, are being somewhat shunned by Mr. Trump but could be of interest to other countries,” Legault said in the interview, via reporting by CTV News [8].

“The key word isn’t just decarbonization anymore — it’s what are we doing for our economy?” he added [8].

Second, global oil demand is still growing to new highs; depending on which organization you ask, we could still be decades away from peak consumption [2]. It’s also important to remember that peak demand doesn’t necessarily coincide with an immediate drop in demand thereafter; some organizations, like S&P Global, predict a decade or longer of plateau through the 2030s before declining consumption becomes a reality [3]. Annual depletion rates of around seven per cent should also be a consideration for Blanchet, requiring hundreds of billions of dollars of new investment every year to maintain adequate supplies and avoid global energy shortages [4].

Third, global oil demand didn't just recover – it shattered records. For example, it grew from 95.7 million barrels per day in 2016 (when the Northern Gateway Pipeline was cancelled) to 104.46 million barrels per day in 2024 [5]. These aren't just numbers; they represent missed economic opportunities for Canadian workers, families, and communities.

But to get a true grasp of just how wildly unpredictable “peak” global oil demand is, we need not look further than Blanchet’s own comments.

In 2020, the Bloc Québécois leader suggested that Canada’s oil sands industry was “dead” due to the demand drop induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, global demand has come roaring back to reach new record highs. In 2025, for example, crude oil consumption worldwide is projected to be more than five million barrels per day (mbpd) higher than in 2019 [5]. That's no small number. Also, oil sands production has stayed the course and is expected to break its own production records in 2025 and beyond.

Steven Guilbeault, Canada’s former environment minister and architect of the economy-draining oil and gas emission cap, also made contested comments in a recent media scrum about Canadian pipelines and global energy demand.

Suggesting that Canada’s recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline (TMX) was running at 40 per cent capacity, the new Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture said we should reconsider nation-building pipeline projects.

“Before we start talking about building an entire new pipeline, maybe we should maximize the use of existing infrastructure,” Guilbuealt said [6].

“And, the Canadian Energy Regulator, as well as the International Energy Agency, are telling us that probably by 2028-2029, demand for oil will peak globally, and it will also peak in Canada,” Guilbeault continued.

We agree. Maximizing existing infrastructure like the TMX, which can expand its capacity with new pumping stations and other upgrades, is an ideal prospect, among others. After all, British Columbia's government has already indicated it supports dredging the Burrard Inlet to make way for fully loaded Aframax-sized tankers [10].

But according to Canada's Energy Regulator (CER), TMX has been operating up to 86% capacity since opening in May 2024 [7]. That's about double what Minister Guilbeault claimed. Additionally, the TMX has opened up new markets for Canadian energy, with China emerging as the top buyer of oil from the expanded pipeline [9]. Several countries in Asia and Europe have also asked for Canadian-made liquefied natural gas (LNG), with global LNG demand projected to grow up to 60 per cent by 2040.

And speaking of predictions, let's also talk about Minister Guilbeault's reference to peak oil demand. He cites projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that suggest we will see a peak by 2028-2029. However, other respected organizations tell a different story. S&P Global, OPEC, Goldman Sachs, and others forecast continued demand growth or plateau through the 2030s and beyond.

Who’s right, who’s wrong?

It's worth noting that energy forecasting is notoriously tricky – nobody has a crystal ball. But one thing is sure: betting against Canadian energy infrastructure based on uncertain predictions has cost Canadians dearly in lost economic opportunities we could have had with the development of several now-cancelled multi-billion dollar pipeline, oil, and natural gas projects.

But there's hope on the horizon.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has signalled a more pragmatic approach to energy and resource development, indicating his support for new pipelines where national consensus exists. And guess what? That consensus is here. Recent polling since February shows strong support for pipeline projects across Canada – including Quebec, where "social license" was supposedly a non-starter for any new projects.

The timing couldn't be more critical. Canada's economy faces significant challenges, particularly from the U.S., which has us cornered on tariffs and discounts on our resource exports because of our lack of market diversification.

The solution is obvious. We need to diversify our international trade relationships, become more economically independent from the world’s largest economy, and maximize the value of our natural resources in the process.

This isn't just about pipelines. It's about building a comprehensive infrastructure network – also including powerlines, ports, railways, and roads – to secure Canada's economic future. Each project represents an opportunity to unite Canadians under a common purpose, creating jobs and prosperity from coast to coast. This approach includes all Canadians, no matter the stripe or banner they identify as or the political party they vote for.

What we’ve recently heard from Mr. Blanchet and Minister Guilbeault isn’t surprising, but it’s still profoundly disappointing. Their statements ignore the reality that resource development has historically brought Canadians together, creating shared prosperity and opportunity across regions and demographics. Now is the time to unite, not divide.

TMX's economic success thus far demonstrates what's possible when we focus on developing our natural resources and trade infrastructure in the national interest. The pipeline project has already proven to be a significant economic driver, creating tens of billions of dollars in economic activity while reducing the price discount on Canadian oil which helped generate an additional $10 billion for our economy in 2024 alone.

What Canada needs now is a clear path forward that recognizes both our current realities and future opportunities. This includes new pipelines, but also new railways, roads, hydro plants, nuclear reactors, wind and solar farms, and everything in between.

This isn’t about choosing between oil or wind energy. It's about smart, strategic growth that benefits all Canadians, and recognizing that our natural resources remain one of our greatest competitive advantages.

It's time to move past the divisiveness and embrace our potential as a nation builder. Together, we can create a future where Canadian resources, innovation, and infrastructure work harmoniously to create a strong foundation of prosperity for generations to come.

The choice is clear: we can build Canada up, or we can talk it down. Let's choose to build.

SOURCES:

1 – https://www.westernstandard.news/alberta/bloc-head-blanchet-says-no-future-for-oil-and-gas-in-quebec-and-probably-everywhere/64440

2 – https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/07/31/oil-industry-wants-to-know-when-global-demand-will-peak-hard-to-predict

3 – https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/061224-iea-sees-major-oil-capacity-glut-by-2030-as-demand-peaks

4 – https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-6-Million-Bpd-of-Global-Oil-Production-Is-Being-Lost-Every-Year.html

5 – https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/global-crude-oil-demand/

6 - https://globalnews.ca/news/11180499/canada-pipelines-use-guilbeault-carney/

7 - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/with-us-trade-war-china-now-top-buyer-canadian-crude-trans-mountain-pipeline-2025-05-16/

8 - https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/francois-legault-raises-possibility-of-pipeline-in-northern-quebec/

9 - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/with-us-trade-war-china-now-top-buyer-canadian-crude-trans-mountain-pipeline-2025-05-16/

10 - https://vancouversun.com/news/should-vancouvers-burrard-inlet-be-dredged-to-make-room-for-fully-loaded-oil-tankers