Canada Has $1.8 Trillion Opportunity to Lead G7 in Economic Growth: REPORT

Canada Has $1.8 Trillion Opportunity to Lead G7 in Economic Growth: REPORT

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Canada has a 1.8 trillion dollar economic opportunity says the Royal Bank of Canada - April 2026 Report

A new report from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) outlines a roadmap for Canada to become the G7's top-growth economy. The resources are here. The capital exists. The only question is whether we have the will to build.

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Canada is sitting on an economic opportunity of a lifetime. With global geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. trade challenges adversely affecting Canadians across the country, a new RBC report shines a light on a path forward – one that includes unlocking trillions of dollars in new job-creating investment which could help usher in a new era of prosperity.

RBC’s Capital Gains: How Canada Can Unlock the $1.8 Trillion It Needs for Growth lays out a clear, data-driven case: if Canada makes the right choices in the coming years, it could lead the G7 in economic growth, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and secure a more prosperous future for Canadian families from coast to coast. The question, as RBC puts it, isn't whether Canada can grow. It's a question of whether Canada will choose to. Also see:

Report Highlights

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1 . A $1.8 Trillion Decade: RBC's most ambitious "Step Change" scenario identifies $1.811 trillion in investable projects across six key industries over the next ten years, enough to make Canada the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

2 . $1 Trillion of Capital Loss: Between 2015 and 2024, Canada experienced the largest capital outflow in its modern history, with more than $1 trillion leaving the country. On a positive note, foreign direct investment (FDI) hit nearly $100 billion in 2024 – the highest level since 2015 – signalling that global investors are watching Canada again.

3. Oil and Gas: Canada's oil and gas sector could grow to 7.1 million barrels per day of production by 2035 with two new export pipelines and three new LNG terminals – representing up to $705 billion in incremental investment. A constrained “trend growth” scenario would reduce that figure to $430 billion.

4. Electricity: Canada's electricity grid needs a generational overhaul. Power demand could double by 2050, requiring nearly 119 gigawatts (GW) of new generation capacity and 240,000 kilometres of upgraded transmission lines, powered by nuclear, hydro, and renewables – representing up to $670 billion in incremental investment. A constrained “trend growth” scenario would reduce that figure to $400 billion.

5. Agriculture & Agri-Food: Canada already feeds the world, with $60 billion in annual agri-food exports. But there’s potential for a 1970s-style investment boom on the horizon if Canada re-commits to R&D and international market expansion – representing a $205 billion investment opportunity. A constrained “trend growth” scenario would reduce that figure to $155 billion.

6. Minerals & Minerals: Global demand for metals and minerals is skyrocketing – copper, lithium, graphite, uranium, and many more. Canada has the geology and the know-how to become a leading supplier of critical minerals to NATO allies – representing a $200 billion investment opportunity. A constrained “trend growth” scenario would reduce that figure to $140 billion.

7. Defence & Manufacturing: Canada is on track to nearly triple defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. If procurement is shifted to 70% domestic buy, Canadian companies could capture $100 billion in contracts and anchor a world-class advanced manufacturing sector.

8. Space Race: Canada was one of the first three nations in space. A targeted step-change investment of $12 billion could double Canada's share of a trillion-dollar global space market by 2035, with sovereign launch capability and expanded contributions to allied space and defence programs.

9. Policy Barriers Remain: Canada's pension funds and asset managers hold nearly CAD $14 trillion in capital. The problem isn't money – it's regulatory predictability. Slow approvals, shifting policy, and a low tolerance for risk have sent capital elsewhere.

10. A Four-Part Plan: Reaching $1.8 trillion will require a new capital formation framework, which includes: (1) a brownfield to greenfield asset recycling program, (2) scale-enabling procurement, (3) reforms to corporate income tax and foreign investment regimes, and (4) leveraging of state capital.

Two Possible Futures for Canada by 2035

RBC identifies six industries – or an "all-of-the-above" solution – where targeted investment over the next decade could fundamentally transform Canada's economic trajectory. Together, they represent a $1.8 trillion opportunity for industries built on the hands and expertise of working families across the country.

It should be noted that of the $1.8 trillion in potential capital investment, the natural resources sector – oil and gas, electricity, mining, and agriculture – represents $1.78 trillion, or about 99% of the total figure from RBC’s report.

It’s no secret that Canada’s natural advantage is the natural resources sector. A 2024 study showed that these industries account for 3 million jobs, 21% of the economy, and 50% of annual exports – forming the foundation of Canada’s economic success.

Low Growth Scenario

Alternatively, in a constrained scenario where it’s “business as usual,” RBC predicts growth would be limited to $1.14 trillion – a missed investment opportunity of ~$670 billion. The figure is reminiscent of the $670 billion in cancelled or stalled natural resource projects in Canada between 2015 and 2023, a time when the economy’s GDP growth was largely fuelled by population increases through immigration.

RBC highlights that Canada is emerging from a decade of weak business investment, stalling productivity, and stagnating living standards. Between 2015 and 2024, more than $1 trillion of investment exited Canada – the largest capital exodus in Canadian history. For every dollar invested in Canada, two dollars exited.

At a time when Canada’s economic performance has been struggling for years, it’s clear we should do everything we can to attract as much capital investment as possible to ensure a strong and prosperous future for our families.

Barriers Exist, But So Do Solutions

RBC is clear about what's been holding Canada’s economy back. The problem isn't a lack of money. Canada’s pension funds and asset managers hold nearly $14 trillion in capital based on today’s USD-to-CAD conversion rate. Globally, that figure is estimated at more than CAD $200 trillion, indicating that the capital is there, but investors are waiting for the right opportunity.

According to the bank, the barriers to investment are self-imposed and have to do with regulatory uncertainty that has plagued our economy for years, including lengthy timelines, lack of predictability, and capital risk.

Over the past decade, major projects have been delayed or cancelled. Approval timelines can stretch for years, with no guarantees that a project will reach the finish line after spending millions, if not billions. Policy frameworks shift before shovels even hit the ground.

It’s clear that Canada’s investment climate hasn’t been conducive to major capital inflows for years; when such uncertainty exists, investors simply go elsewhere.

Canada’s Investment Crisis: 4-Point Solution

RBC's four-pillar solution to Canada’s current economic struggle is both practical and proven. It includes the following recommendations:

(1) An asset recycling program converts mature public infrastructure into investable assets and reinvests the proceeds.

(2) Scale-enabling procurement turns government buying power into an anchor for private investment.

(3) Tax and regulatory reforms improve Canada's after-tax returns relative to peer nations.

(4) And strategic use of state capital absorbs early-stage risk to crowd in private money, particularly in critical minerals and nuclear/renewables.

For a more in-depth look at RBC’s full analysis and solutions, we encourage you to read the full report here: Capital Gains: How Canada Can Unlock the $1.8 Trillion it Needs for Growth.

This Is About Canadian Families – Not Just Numbers

Everything in RBC's report aligns with the messaging that Canada Action has been sharing for years: we can't afford to wait. Canada has the resources, the talent, the land, the water, the minerals, the energy, and the expertise. Developing our natural resource wealth and building the pipelines, power plants, ports, rail, and roads to get more Canadian-made goods to global markets is no longer optional if we truly want to build a better, stronger economic future.

It's about the family in Northern Ontario where a parent works at a mine. The welder in Alberta building infrastructure for the next generation. The farmer in Saskatchewan who wants to sell canola to a diversified customer base. The electrician in New Brunswick who desires to help build the next nuclear project. These are real people, real livelihoods, and real communities that are counting on Canada to get this right.

Canada's natural resources sector – energy, mining, agriculture, and forestry – and the immense revenues it generates have supported the country's healthcare system, schools, roads, and communities for generations. RBC’s report simply showcases the opportunity for our job-creating, prosperity-generating resource industries to play an even bigger role in building a brighter future for all Canadians.

The Window Is Open – But Not Forever

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Global competition for capital is fierce, and Canada isn't the only country looking to secure its economic future. The United States is moving aggressively on critical minerals. Europe is racing to build its defence and energy capacity. South Asia is looking to diversify its energy supply chains towards more stable suppliers. Nations around the world are competing for the same pools of capital, talent, and market access.

Canada has every advantage: a stable democracy, the rule of law, world-class natural resources, a deep talent pool, and, as RBC confirms, a trillion-dollar capital base ready to be put to work. What we need now is the boldness to act. Faster approvals. Clearer policy. A genuine commitment to expediency in building the projects that will define Canada's economy for the next fifty years.

The RBC report is a road map. The capital is available. The world wants what Canada has. Now it's up to us.

It's time to build. It's time to grow. It's time to take action.